Summary

Saudi crude exports have been falling since the US- Iran war began, but the latest slide is no longer just a story of disrupted trade routes. Cargoes scheduled to sail from Saudi Arabia in May are now assessed at roughly 3.9 million b/d (historic lows), while almost every major Saudi buyer – China, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan – is cutting nominations for the months ahead. China, still Saudi Aramco’s largest customer, is expected to take only about 600,000 b/d of Saudi crude in June, roughly half April’s volume.

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