The price of physical crude has collapsed in recent weeks from premiums of over $30 per barrel above the Brent benchmark in early April, to near-parity or even at small discounts in the May buying cycle window. That’s not because the worst-ever disruption in oil markets has eased and supply has suddenly become plentiful from sources other than the Middle East. It’s because refiners are adjusting their buying behavior and backing out of nearly $150 per barrel physical cargo prices in hopes of a resolution to the conflict and an eventual…

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