Summary

For two decades, OPEC ministers, Wall Street analysts, and oil traders have been speaking about the global crude market as if traditional rules still apply. OPEC’s kingpin, Saudi Arabia, is still seen as the swing producer, while OPEC+ is viewed as the balancing mechanism. US shale remains the marginal barrel, while global oil prices are supposedly driven by visible fundamentals such as inventories, demand growth, geopolitical disruptions, and refinery margins. At present, however, that world does not exist anymore.

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