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2100 Transition Scenarios Need A Better Population Denominator
One of the easiest ways to get 2100 wrong is to carry the 20th-century population curve forward as if it still defines the future.
AI Summary
The accuracy of 2100 transition scenarios relies heavily on population projections. Current models often rely on a 20th-century population growth curve, which may not accurately reflect future trends. This outdated approach can lead to inaccurate assumptions about global needs, including food, energy, and urban planning. The world's population has already undergone significant changes, expanding from approximately 2.5 billion in 1950 to over 8 billion today. A more accurate population denominator is necessary to create reliable transition scenarios for 2100. This would involve reassessing and updating population growth projections to better reflect the complexities of the 21st century.
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