Summary

Almost 8 months into Trump’s war on Iran, we can see more clearly the consequences of this quagmire. Some have been quite unexpected, like the surprising resilience of the oil market, the emergence of multiple failure points outside of Hormuz (including Bab-al Mandeb, the East-West pipeline, and global refinery capacity), and the increased risk of regionalization for the conflict. These issues have no doubt taken a lot of analysts by surprise. Others, like Trump’s reluctance to admit he messed up, have been quite expected.

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