This weekend’s escalation between Iran and Israel showed just how hopes of a deal could be, and how traders may be too complacent about the ongoing oil supply disruption. Since Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz more than three months ago, global oil inventories and China’s more than 1.2 billion barrel stockpile, high levels of oil volumes on water, and the ability of Saudi Arabia to quickly re-route its exports not to depend on the Hormuz chokepoint have kept oil prices from soaring to record highs. But the constantly changing…

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