Summary

Prediction market boosters often tout the platforms as barometers of public opinion, or even “truth machines” offering a clearer picture of where things are headed than polling or other data. In 2024, for example, Kalshi beat many pollsters in forecasting the outcome of the US presidential race. But their trading activity can also tell more perplexing stories. Two global election markets on Polymarket’s offshore platform , for instance, generated over $600 million in trading volume, far more than most political markets typically attract.

AI summaries can be wrong sometimes—always verify important details using the source article.