Summary

Daron Acemoglu has a number for everything. The MIT economist — who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2024 for his work on institutions and prosperity — estimates that roughly 0.55% in total factor productivity gains is what AI will actually deliver over the next decade, a fraction of Wall Street’s euphoric projections. He estimates only about 5% of tasks will be profitably automated in the near term, equivalent to a 1% or 1.5% increase in GDP.

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