Summary

As the second Trump administration enters its second year, the "honeymoon phase" for his Cabinet appears to be over—at least according to prediction markets. On the regulated exchange Kalshi, traders are increasingly betting on a major shakeup in the President's inner circle. Recent weeks have seen a sharp spike in the probability of departures for several high-profile officials, with Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem and Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard topping the list of most likely exits.

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