MD 0849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 0849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska into southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242034Z - 242200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible when storms develop/mature this afternoon. Timing remains uncertain, but a watch is possible by late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Deeper cumulus have developed near the SD/NE border. Additional, but more shallow, development has also been noted from near Sioux Falls into southwest Minnesota. How soon any of this activity can develop into sustained thunderstorms is not clear given the subtly rising mid-level heights this afternoon. Given the strong surface heating, it is possible that a storm or two develops within the next 1-2 hours. However, it is more probable that more robust convection will initiate as lift from a shortwave trough now in eastern Montana arrives closer to 00Z. 30-35 kt of effective shear and -16 to -17 C at 500 mb (per 18Z ABR/OAX soundings) suggest large/very-large hail and severe winds would be possible with supercells. Timing of watch issuance remains uncertain. It is more probable by late afternoon, but could be sooner if convective trends warrant. ..Wendt.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 44389801 45049604 44849515 44599462 44329469 44109485 42849647 42709666 42309732 42159872 42879942 43519908 44389801 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

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