MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF GEORGIA...EASTERN ALABAMA...INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA Mesoscale Discussion 0846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...Much of Georgia...eastern Alabama... into far western South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241755Z - 242000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts this afternoon. Storm organization will be limited and a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed thunderstorms increasing in coverage over eastern AL, FL and much of GA. Ample heating is occurring within a very moist air mass (70s F dewpoints) supporting moderate instability. While low and mid-level flow are quite weak, locally stronger convergence is occurring near a broad MCV along the AL/GA border. This will continue to serve as a focus for convective development this afternoon, with additional storms likely to develop within the warm sector as convective temperatures are breached. One or more clusters of stronger storms appears plausible, with convection gradually spreading east/northeastward into SC this afternoon/evening. Given the very weak vertical shear, pulse multicellular storms are the expected mode. Heavy water loading (PWATS near or exceeding 2 inches) will favor damaging gust potential with the stronger downdrafts. But, the lack of broader upper air support and very weak shear suggests the threat will be isolated and dependent on favorable outflow interactions and storm-scale clustering. With the severe potential likely to be sporadic, a WW is very unlikely. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 30518351 30548433 31028490 32578573 33828614 34678570 34698508 34358418 34418243 33888139 32748127 32338138 31588149 30958197 30668262 30518351 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

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